The MLB season is ten games in, but I must say that I’m still feeling the euphoria of my spring training adventure in Arizona. Oh, how I yearn for those sun-drenched days without a cloud in the sky. That is especially true given the cold and rainy weather of the Midwest during baseball’s opening week, a story for another time. Looking ahead though, a dark cloud looms over spring training in 2027 and the regular season. You see, the collective bargaining agreement (CBA) between MLB and the MLB Players Association (MLBPA) is scheduled to expire on December 1, 2026. Most everyone in baseball is counting on some sort of work stoppage in 2027, threatening once again the game we all love.

The history of baseball strikes and lockouts goes back to the first one in 1972, a thirteen day strike by the players in early April of the season. The strike concerned the players’ pension fund, and resulted in the cancellation of 86 games. None of the cancelled games were rescheduled. Crazily, since the Tigers were able to play one more game that season than the Red Sox, Detroit won the AL East over Boston by a ½ game. The 1970s saw two other work stoppages – a February, 1973 lockout and a March, 1976 lockout of the players, both of which were for eighteen days and during spring training. No regular season games were impacted. The major characters in these labor disputes, Baseball Commissioner Bowie Kuhn and MLBPA union director Marvin Miller, would be at center stage for some difficult times ahead.

For many of us the 1981 MLB strike is the first one we remember. At issue was free agent compensation. The owners wanted some sort of compensation for losing a free agent to another team, while the players argued that any limit on free agency would affect its value. The strike began on June 12 and ended on July 31, resulting in the cancellation of one-third of the season. The compromise was that teams who lost a “premium” free agent could grab a player left unprotected from all MLB teams, not just the signing team. The strike though left a scar on the game. MLB decided to play two split seasons with the division winners of each split getting into the playoffs. Unfortunately, teams such as the Reds and Cardinals won the overall records in their respective divisions but neither one of the split seasons, and were left out of the postseason. More importantly, the strike hurt the game itself as fan discord was reflected in decreased attendance at MLB ballparks.

The 1990s was also a decade of labor turmoil and fan discontent. In 1990, MLB locked out the players for 32 days beginning in February, basically eliminating spring training. The season began a week later than scheduled, but this time MLB accommodated a 162-game schedule by ending the season three days late. The owners called for a revenue sharing plan where 48% of the players’ salaries would be paid from, and also for the first time proposed a salary cap on all teams. Ultimately, the parties agreed to form a committee to “study” revenue sharing. Just four years later, baseball experienced its longest work stoppage ever as a strike began on August 12, 1994, and was not suspended until April 2, 1995, 235 days later. 948 games were cancelled, including the 1994 World Series, and the 1995 season was reduced to a 144-game schedule. The core issue concerned the owners’ continuing desire to impose a salary cap, which was never resolved and remains at the center of the conflict between the owners and players today.

The most recent work stoppage is the 2021-2022 lockout. When the CBA ended at midnight on December 1, 2021, the owners immediately locked out the players after months of stalled negotiations. Interestingly, in the month prior to the lockout, owners scrambled to sign the premiere free agents at a record total of $1.9 billion. At the crux of the dispute were compensation for young players and the owners’ demand to narrow the disparity of each team’s combined salary with a minimum of $100 million per team and an incremental luxury tax beginning at $180 million. The lockout, which began on December 2, lasted over three months, shortening spring training and rescheduling the first two weeks of the season to later dates. In the settlement, league minimum salaries were increased by 23% but the ball was essentially pushed down the road on teams’ combined salary concerns. An incremental luxury tax was instituted at a higher level, topping off at $242 million this year. If you have kept track of free agent signings during the past offseason, you know that many teams seem unfazed about the luxury tax. Many say that the Dodgers signing of Kyle Tucker for four years at $240 million will be the contract that pushes MLB owners over the edge.

With that as background, a dark cloud at midnight, December 1, 2026, seems almost inevitable. Baseball will come to a standstill on the issue of a salary cap. In July 2025, Commissioner Rob Manfred toured the clubhouses of many MLB teams and was confronted quite harshly by Phillies’ star Bryce Harper who in essence suggested that a salary cap is a non-starter and would be worth 162 games to fight off. While the MLBPA opposes a cap, the union seems to support a salary floor. A salary floor would force lower revenue teams to spend more. To put this all in perspective, other U.S. professional sports have caps in place. Both the NFL and NHL have a strict hard cap, an absolute maximum limit that teams cannot exceed.

Is there a possible solution to baseball’s dilemma? Maybe we explore a hard cap and floor at the same time. I’ve heard several experts propose that baseball institute, in today’s dollars, a maximum cap of $280 million and a floor of $140 million per team. Looking at the available numbers from 2025, this kind of cap would only impact the Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, and Phillies, while the floor would push 12 teams, almost half the number of MLB teams, to spend more and hopefully be more competitive. I don’t know about you, but I’m tired of the Dodgers dominating the payroll and World Series landscapes.

In the past week or so, I think we are seeing some owners plan ahead for a work stoppage. Young, future stars are being signed by the lower revenue teams to long term contracts. The Brewers signed future star infielder Cooper Pratt to an eight-year deal through 2033. Seattle followed suit with an eight-year, $95 million deal for its top prospect, shortstop Colt Emerson. And just last Thursday, the rumor hit the market that the Pirates are close to signing MLB’s #1 prospect, Konnor Griffin, to a nine-year, $140 million deal. The owners are getting firm commitments from players before the possibility of a work stoppage. Maybe there are some partly sunny skies ahead.

If there is a prolonged, work stoppage in 2027, what am I going to do? What will be there to write about? In late June 1981, my wife and I honeymooned at a luxurious (smile) family resort in central Tennessee. We began our drive back home to St. Louis while the 1981 strike was just three weeks old. She knew then that baseball would always be a big part of my life when I persuaded her that we stop for a night in Peducah, Kentucky, to watch a low minor leagues game. I was already missing baseball and in need of a little fix. Ominous, storm clouds lifted that night right around first pitch. Hopefully, in 2027, the dark cloud won’t be there to stay.

Until next Monday,

your Baseball Bench Coach